BTC Finds Support, But the DCL Still Awaits Confirmation

July 30, 2026

Pre-Summary

Bitcoin has rallied from support and is working to complete a Daily Cycle Low. One signal is still missing before the DCL can be labeled.

Bitcoin printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 27, placing it within its Daily Cycle Low (DCL) timing band. Price found support at the 50-day MA, formed a bullish reversal on Tuesday, completed a swing low on Wednesday, and is continuing to rally today. Despite the improving price action, Bitcoin remains below the 10-day MA.

Under the Likesmoney Method, a swing low identifies a candidate DCL, but it does not complete the signal. A close above the 10-day MA is still required before day 27 can be labeled as the Daily Cycle Low.

Bitcoin remains in a daily uptrend. A close above the 10-day MA would indicate a continuation of that uptrend, trigger a cycle band buy signal, and signal day 27 as the Daily Cycle Low.

Current Framework

Trend: Daily uptrend.

Cycle: Day 27 remains the candidate DCL.

Next Trigger: A close above the 10-day MA signals the DCL and a cycle band buy signal.

2 responses to “BTC Finds Support, But the DCL Still Awaits Confirmation”

John

July 30, 2026

can you explain swing low identifies a candidate DCL ?

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  August 1, 2026
  
  Hi John,
  Great question.
  
  A swing low identifies a potential Daily Cycle Low because it suggests the decline may have ended. However, a swing low alone is not enough to label the DCL. I look for a close above the 10-day MA.
  
  The swing low identifies the potential DCL. A close above the 10-day MA signals the cycle.
  
  This allows price—not anticipation—to determine when the cycle has likely turned.
  
  Reply

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