Cycle Trading

Pre-Summary

Earlier this week, the Dollar appeared to have signaled its Daily Cycle Low after breaking above the 10-day moving average and the declining trend line. Wednesday’s decline changed that framework, extending the daily cycle instead. Thursday’s rally eased the parameters for forming a new swing low, leaving the Dollar hunting its Daily Cycle Low once again.

Earlier this week, we labeled Day 31 as the Daily Cycle Low after the Dollar formed a bullish reversal, a swing low, and broke above both the 10-day moving average and the declining trend line. — That changed on Wednesday.

The Dollar formed a swing high on Tuesday before breaking below the Day 31 low on Wednesday, extending the daily cycle decline. Wednesday marked Day 34, placing the Dollar back into its timing band for a Daily Cycle Low.

Thursday did not deliver bearish follow-through. Instead, the Dollar rallied, easing the parameters for forming a swing low.

The Dollar remains in a daily uptrend. A swing low followed by a close above the 10-day moving average would indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal. At that point, we would label Day 34 as the Daily Cycle Low. A break above 101.03 will form the required swing low.

Dollar Cycle Study

✓ Previous Update: Support held at 100.56 while the Dollar consolidated beneath the 10-day moving average.

✓ Monday: Breakout above the 10-day moving average and declining trend line labeled Day 31 as the Daily Cycle Low.

✓ Wednesday: The daily cycle decline extended, returning the Dollar to its timing band for a Daily Cycle Low.

✓ Thursday: The rally eased the parameters for a new swing low.

Next Milestone: A break above 101.03 forms a swing low. A close above the 10-day moving average labels Day 34 as the Daily Cycle Low.