Cycle Trading

Pre-Summary

Over the past three updates, we’ve followed NVDA as it progressed from finding support at the 200-day moving average to signaling a new Daily Cycle Low. Friday’s breakout completed the next stage of that progression. NVDA closed above the upper daily cycle band, ending the daily downtrend, beginning a new daily uptrend, and signaling that the Intermediate Cycle Low has been set.

Over the past several weeks, we’ve followed NVDA through each stage of a developing cycle reversal. After finding support at the 200-day moving average, the stock reclaimed the 10-day moving average to signal June 29 as the Daily Cycle Low. Friday’s advance completed the next stage of that progression.

NVDA closed decisively above the declining trend line while also reclaiming the 50-day moving average and closing above the upper daily cycle band.

This signals the end of the daily downtrend and the beginning of a new daily uptrend. The close above the upper daily cycle band also signals that the Intermediate Cycle Low has been set.

What is clear is that each stage of this advance required additional evidence before the next label could be applied. The Daily Cycle Low was signaled first. The daily trend reversal required further strength before the daily uptrend could begin.

NVDA is now becoming stretched above the rising 10-day moving average. Some consolidation from current levels would be normal and would help allow the 10-day moving average time to catch up before another advance develops.

From a cycle perspective, this sequence illustrates how the methodology builds a framework of expectations one step at a time. Rather than anticipating a reversal, each label was applied only after price provided the evidence needed to support it.

NVDA Cycle Study

✓ June 30: Support identified at the 200-day moving average.

✓ July 7: Price reclaimed the 10-day moving average, setting up a potential Daily Cycle Low.

✓ July 9: Bullish follow-through signaled June 29 as the Daily Cycle Low.

✓ This Week: A close above the upper daily cycle band ended the daily downtrend, began a new daily uptrend, and signaled the Intermediate Cycle Low.

Next Milestone: Holding above the 10-day moving average would favor continuation of the new daily uptrend.