Cycle Trading

Pre-Summary

Over our last two NVDA updates, we followed the stock as it found support at the 200-day moving average and repeatedly tested the declining 10-day moving average. This week, NVDA delivered the bullish follow-through needed to signal June 29 as the Daily Cycle Low. The focus now shifts to whether the new daily cycle can generate enough strength to reverse the prevailing daily downtrend.

Over our last two NVDA updates, we have followed the progression of a potential Daily Cycle Low as it developed in real time. After declining nearly 20% from its recent high, NVDA found support at the 200-day moving average and formed a swing low on June 29. It then spent several sessions testing the declining 10-day moving average before finally closing above it.

Wednesday provided the bullish follow-through that completed the setup. NVDA rallied 3.65%, turning the 10-day moving average higher. This signals June 29 as the Daily Cycle Low and provides the evidence needed to label the beginning of a new daily cycle.

What is clear is that the daily cycle has turned higher, but the daily trend has not.

Wednesday’s rally also left NVDA stretched above the 10-day moving average as it ran into resistance at the declining trend line. Some consolidation from here would be normal and would help allow the 10-day moving average time to catch up to price before another advance.

The declining trend line is now the next obstacle. A breakout above that trend line would likely target the 50-day moving average, which currently aligns with the upper daily cycle band.

That alignment makes this an important area to watch. A close above the upper daily cycle band would end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend. It would also signal that the Intermediate Cycle Low has been set.

From a cycle perspective, this sequence illustrates an important principle of cycle analysis. A Daily Cycle Low can be signaled well before the prevailing trend changes. The trend reversal requires additional evidence, and that remains the next objective for NVDA.

NVDA Cycle Study

✓ June 30: Support identified at the 200-day moving average.

✓ July 9: Price reclaimed the 10-day moving average, setting up a potential Daily Cycle Low.

✓ This Week: Bullish follow-through signaled June 29 as the Daily Cycle Low.

Next Milestone: A close above the upper daily cycle band begins a new daily uptrend and signals the Intermediate Cycle Low.