Cycle Trading

PRE-SUMMARY

Oil continues to decline into its intermediate cycle timing band as price approaches a major support zone formed by the converging 50-week and 200-week moving averages.

Oil was rejected by the 10-week moving average the previous week and declined 6.92%. That weakness has continued this week, with Oil delivering bearish follow-through and falling nearly 10% as the decline extends.  From a cycle perspective, Oil is now in week 26, placing it in the early portion of its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Timing alone does not confirm a cycle low. However, attention is now shifting toward potential support from the converging 50-week and 200-week moving averages.

What is clear is that Oil remains under pressure following its rejection at the 10-week moving average. The current decline is testing whether longer-term support can stabilize price as the intermediate cycle progresses.  The key trigger remains the lower weekly cycle band. Oil is currently in a weekly uptrend. However, a close below the lower weekly cycle band will end the weekly uptrend and begin a weekly downtrend. This would also signal the yearly cycle decline.  Confirmation will be needed before an intermediate cycle low can be identified. Until then, the focus remains on support and whether the current decline begins to stabilize within the timing band.

CYCLE ALIGNMENT

Mixed