Cycle Trading

PRE-SUMMARY

Stocks closed below the 10 day moving average on Friday, signaling a daily cycle decline after failing to deliver bullish follow-through.

Stocks extended higher after breaking out of consolidation and testing resistance near 7600, but momentum faded as price stretched above the rising 10 day moving average. A swing high formed on Wednesday. Buyers held the 10 day moving average on Thursday, keeping the daily uptrend intact into Friday.

Friday reversed lower, with price closing below the 10 day moving average and turning it lower. This signals a daily cycle decline. Cycle counts remain mixed. Friday could represent day 12 of a new cycle or day 46 of an extended cycle, given prior structure into the day 34 low. What is clear is that a swing high and close below the 10 day moving average confirms a daily cycle decline. Near-term control shifts lower, though confirmation will be needed on further downside continuation. The broader weekly uptrend remains intact. The key question is whether this is a standard daily cycle correction or the start of deeper weekly pressure.

Cycle Alignment:

• Bullish