Cycle Trading

PRE-SUMMARY

The dollar continues consolidating between 98.25 resistance and 97.60 support. A shortened daily cycle remains possible, though confirmation will still be needed.

The dollar closed below the 98.25 resistance level last Wednesday on day 13 of the daily cycle. Since then, the dollar has consolidated beneath resistance while continuing to hold above support near 97.60.

From a cycle perspective, Monday marked day 16 for the current daily cycle. Since the previous daily cycle stretched to 58 days, it is possible that the dollar may now be forming a shortened daily cycle in order to help balance out the cycle counts.

However, timing bands alone do not confirm a DCL. A swing low combined with a close back above the 10 day moving average would still be needed in order to signal a daily cycle low.

What is clear is that the dollar remains in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

However, the consolidation between the 98.25 resistance level and 97.60 support level continues to compress price action and suggests the market is still in the process of determining directional resolution. If the dollar breaks below the previous DCL at 97.63, then it would form a failed daily cycle and indicate continued pressure on the broader cycle structure.

Cycle Alignment

• Bearish