Cycle Trading

Summary

Inflection → support holding + reversal attempt

Gold ran into resistance at the declining 10 day moving average on Monday and formed a swing high on Tuesday. From a cycle perspective, this keeps gold in a daily downtrend, as forming a swing high below the 10 day moving average indicates continuation and signals a cycle band sell signal.

However, gold did not deliver bearish follow-through on Wednesday. With Tuesday marking day 29, gold is now within its timing band for a daily cycle low. Price found support near 4500 and rallied, easing the parameters for forming a swing low.

Confirmation will be needed. A break above 4641.57 would form a swing low, and a subsequent close above the 10 day moving average would allow us to label day 29 as the daily cycle low.

What is clear is that gold remains in a daily downtrend while below the 10 day moving average. However, the lack of downside follow-through at this stage in the cycle introduces the possibility that a low may be forming. If gold breaks above 4641.57 and closes above the 10 day moving average, then that will signal the new daily cycle, ending the pattern of lower lows and indicating a potential change in trend. If price fails to reclaim the 10 day moving average, then the downtrend remains intact.

Cycle Alignment

Bearish