Cycle Trading

Pre-Summary

Rejection → resistance holds + decline developing

The dollar had been consolidating below the 50 day moving average until Thursday, where price was rejected at that level and moved lower.

From a cycle perspective, the dollar has now broken below both the 200 day moving average and the 10 day moving average, placing it in position for a daily cycle decline. The peak on day 6 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation.

Structurally, the rejection reinforces the 50 day moving average as resistance, while the break below both shorter-term and longer-term moving averages shifts the bias toward continuation lower. With Thursday marking only day 9, the cycle may still be early in its decline phase.

Confirmation will be needed through sustained acceptance below the 10 day moving average and 200 day moving average. What is clear is that the trend remains lower while price holds below resistance and continues to weaken beneath key moving averages.  However, the cycle is not yet extended, and typical timing would allow for further downside before a daily cycle low forms. A break below 97.63 would form a failed daily cycle and reinforce downside continuation.

Cycle Alignment

Bearish