Cycle Trading

Summary

• BTC formed DCL on day 33
• Confirmed with close above 10 day MA
• 72000 remains key resistance
• 10 day MA turning higher
• Watch upper cycle band for trend shift

BTC printed its lowest point on day 33, placing it squarely within its timing band for a daily cycle low. The following day produced a swing low, but price initially remained capped beneath the 10 day moving average. Confirmation arrived on Sunday, as BTC closed above both the 10 day and 50 day moving averages while also turning the 10 day higher. From a cycle perspective, this satisfies the confirmation rule and locks in day 33 as the DCL.

BTC is now delivering bullish follow through, but price is beginning to stretch above the 10 day moving average as it approaches the 72000 resistance level — a level that has acted as a ceiling since early February. This suggests a pause or consolidation may be needed to allow the 10 day to catch up. However, the broader condition remains important. BTC is still in a daily downtrend. If price can close above the upper daily cycle band, then that would signal a transition into a new daily uptrend. Until then, this remains a counter-trend rally within the existing structure

Cycle Alignment

Daily: Downtrend, DCL confirmed, follow through underway