Cycle Trading

SUMMARY

• Stocks recently confirmed a DCL
• Rally underway but facing resistance
• Weekly and monthly cycles still under pressure
• 7000 remains key breakout level
• Structure forming, confirmation pending

In the prior post, we looked at how multiple assets moved from consolidation into expansion before entering their cycle declines. What is clear is that structure sets the stage — but confirmation determines the outcome. Stocks are now at that same point of inflection. Stocks continue to consolidate below the 7000 level — a structure that often precedes expansion once resolved.

From a cycle perspective, stocks recently confirmed a daily cycle low and have begun to rally out of that low. However, this advance is occurring within a broader structure that remains unresolved. The market is still working through both a weekly and yearly cycle decline. This is where structure meets confirmation. The rally off the daily cycle low suggests that the low has formed. However, stocks remain in a daily downtrend and are approaching resistance at the 200 day moving average. At the same time, the weekly cycle is in its timing band for a potential low, while the monthly cycle is working through its yearly decline. This creates a layered setup.

If stocks can continue to build on this daily strength and begin to confirm across higher timeframes, then the structure begins to align. If not, the current move risks becoming another failed rally within a broader downtrend. The key level remains unchanged. If stocks form a monthly swing low and break above the 7000 resistance level, then a breakout from the current 7-month consolidation becomes possible. Until then, confirmation will be needed.

CYCLE ALIGNMENT

Daily cycle turning up, but weekly and monthly cycles remain under pressure — alignment is mixed at a key inflection point.

This is the type of environment where cycle structure becomes most valuable.

Tracking how the daily, weekly, and monthly cycles interact — and knowing what confirms a turn — helps define both risk and opportunity as the market moves through these inflection points. These cycle relationships and key levels are tracked each week in the Weekend Report.

This week I am offering a special 6-week trial subscription for $15, giving you full access to the premium site.

The goal is simple — to provide a clear, structured framework for navigating the market using cycle analysis.