Cycle Trading

Summary

• The dollar formed a swing high on Tuesday.
• Tuesday marked day 35, placing the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low.
• A close below the 10 day moving average will signal the start of the daily cycle decline.
• The 50 day and 200 day moving averages are converging and may act as support.
• The broader daily uptrend remains intact.

The dollar formed a swing high on Tuesday, which marked day 35 of the current daily cycle. This places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A close below the 10 day moving average will be needed to signal the start of the daily cycle decline. The dollar should then go on to turn the 10 day moving average lower in order to complete that decline.

We will be watching the converging 50 day and 200 day moving averages as potential support levels where the daily cycle low may form. Despite the recent stall, the dollar remains in a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in that uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Cycle Alignment

Daily cycle is nearing a corrective phase within an ongoing uptrend.