Cycle Trading

Summary

• Global leadership remains intact, with strength in equities, energy, and industrial metals.
• Several key markets are extended and moving deeper into cycle timing bands.
• Bitcoin is deeply oversold on both daily and weekly timing, setting up a potential low.
• The bigger story: strength is broad — but cycle maturity is rising across multiple assets.

Market leadership remains firmly in place across several key risk assets, but beneath the surface, timing conditions are becoming more mature.

Copper and energy continue to show structural strength, with both markets maintaining powerful multi-timeframe uptrends. In fact, the longer-term cycle band signals suggest both remain in melt-up conditions — environments where traditional cycle counts can become less reliable and trend persistence becomes the dominant force.

At the same time, several of these leaders are becoming increasingly extended. When multiple markets move deeper into their timing bands simultaneously, the risk shifts from trend failure to trend exhaustion or consolidation.

Bitcoin sits at the opposite extreme. After breaking below its prior cycle low, BTC is now very late in both its daily and weekly timing windows. Conditions are building for a potential cycle low, but confirmation will require a swing low and closes back above key moving averages.

Natural gas remains in a compression pattern across timeframes, with price trapped between key moving averages. These multi-timeframe range conditions typically resolve with a directional move once support or resistance gives way.

The broader takeaway is that strength remains widespread — but across multiple markets, cycle maturity is increasing. This type of environment often produces continued upside, but with rising sensitivity to catalysts.

That’s where the dollar comes back into focus. As discussed in recent posts, the dollar is sitting at a critical long-term trend line. A rejection there could provide the liquidity backdrop needed to extend the melt-up across risk assets. A sustained move higher in the dollar, however, would likely shift the tone across multiple markets.

Takeaway

Leadership remains intact across global risk assets, but increasing cycle maturity means the next move will likely be driven by the dollar — and confirmation signals will matter more than ever.

Subscribers are receiving the detailed multi-timeframe cycle analysis — including specific levels, timing windows, and confirmation signals — across BTC, the DAX, Copper, NatGas, and XLE.