Some headwinds for the market this week include Wednesday’s Fed Meeting and stocks running into Resistance.
Fed Meeting — Key points to watch for include:
- Labor Market Tone:
- Does Powell continue to describe the job market as “solid,” or does he acknowledge signs of softening (e.g., revised job gains, weak ADP data, Beige Book findings)?
- Tariff-Related Inflation:
- Does Powell maintain April’s hawkish tone on reciprocal Trump tariffs and inflation risks, or does he dial it back in light of the 90-day pause and soft March core PCE data?
- Rate Cut Guidance:
- Any hint on timing or scale of future cuts—especially whether a July rate cut is still likely, or if the Fed will continue to “wait for clarity.”
- Economic Outlook:
- Look for comments on consumer spending, business investment, and GDP growth risks tied to broader Trump policies (tariffs, immigration, regulation, etc.).
- Policy Flexibility:
- Will Powell emphasize data-dependence and flexibility, or signal a more fixed stance on keeping rates “restrictive” for longer?
Markets could react sharply to any shift in tone on these issues.
Resistance
Stocks closed below the 200 day MA resistance level on Friday. Stocks formed a swing high on Monday then closed lower on Tuesday. A close below the converging 10 day MA and 50 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. A swing low with a close above the 200 day MA will indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal.
Cycle Trading 
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