Cycle Trading

When stocks undercut the day 54 low last Friday, the bullish divergence on the oscillators indicated a continuation of the daily cycle decline. Recovery of the breakdown level would have indicated an extended daily cycle low.

When stocks formed a swing low on Monday it looked, in real time, that the undercut-extended daily cycle low scenario was valid. Then stocks were rejected by the breakdown level on Wednesday then delivered bearish follow through on Thursday. Which makes me think we need to label day 54 as the DCL which would make Thursday day 12 of a failed daily cycle. And loosing the breakdown level signals that stocks have entered a bloodbath phase – which can last 5 to 10 days.