The 8/20/22 Weekend Report Preview

August 20, 2022

The Dollar

The dollar closed above the 10 day MA on Monday then delivered bullish follow through by closing above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday and Friday to signal the new daily cycle.

Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a new daily uptrend. Closing above the upper daily cycle band also indicates that the intermediate cycle low has been set.

Stocks

Stocks ran into resistance at the 200 day MA on Tuesday and formed a swing high on Wednesday.

Stocks delivered bearish follow through by closing below the 10 day MA on Friday to signal the daily cycle decline. Friday was day 43, placing stocks deep their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks will need to turn the 10 day MA lower before the DCL can form. Stocks should then go on to break below the (blue) daily cycle trend line as they seek out their DCL. However, we could see the 50 day MA provide support for the DCL to form. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daly uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band.

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3 responses to “The 8/20/22 Weekend Report Preview”

Koen Huysman

August 20, 2022

Dear
The explanation is not very clear… You do exspect the blue line or the 50 MA but both are under the cycle so remaining in an uptrend is not the idea.. for stocks… For the dollar you exspectef left translated and thought before that the max was in I believe…. Now it seems that a new uptrend has started without having had a downtrend?

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  August 20, 2022
  
  Koen,
  Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. You are correct that both the 50 day MA and the daily cycle trend line are below the lower daily cycle band, indicating that stocks will need to close below the lower daily cycle band and begin a daily downtrend as they complete the daily cycle decline. Which would mean that the current uptrend in stocks will be short-lived.
  
  Something that I have planned to discuss once stocks form the pending DCL is some possibilities for the new yearly cycle. The previous yearly cycle was quite stretched at 27 months. We could see a shortened yearly cycle, which would help to balance out the yearly cycle counts. Most intermediate cycles are embedded with 2 – 4 daily cycles. But if stocks do have a shortened yearly cycle then the current intermediate cycle may only have 2 daily cycles. Under this scenario — then we could see the next daily cycle left translate, in order to usher in the intermediate cycle decline.
  
  Regarding the dollar, I wrote “which we will discuss below”. My apologies. I copied this from the full subscribers report where I go on to discuss the uncertainty with the dollar’s intermediate cycle.
  
  LM
  
  Reply
Koen Huysman

August 20, 2022

I think for stocks that next explanation will be that a low is formed above the low cycle band and continuation of the uptrend?

Reply

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