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Cycle Trading

Hard Stop

The declines in June, July and now August have not satisfied the usual criteria for a DCL. We are seeing 4 – 5 day declines that are being bought buy “dip buyers”, which is obscuring our timing bands.

At 26 weeks, stocks are due for an intermediate cycle decline. Once again, stocks are becoming stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks may consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. But a break below the previous daily cycle high of 4480.26 can be used as a hard stop to to avoid a potential ICL decline.

2 responses to “Hard Stop”

  1. Ilian Nikolov Avatar
    Ilian Nikolov

    Perhaps it may help to track the Half-Cycle lows as well? I have the June decline as a HCL with the July decline as the second DCL in this intermediate cycle. Both DC1 and DC2 came in at 69 days perfectly (I use calendar days instead of trading days). And both their DCHs were at 64 days. Therefore, it can be reasonable to assume that DCH should come in the next couple of weeks or so before the intermediate cycle decline begins.

    My chart, FWIW
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/OHBZvsKI/

    Reply
    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      I have found that half cycle lows are not as reliable as cycle lows.

      Reply

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