Cycle Trading

After peaking on day 17 the dollar printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 24. That places it in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar’s decline retraced almost to the 50 % fib level before printing a bullish reversal off of support from the 50 day MA. Now a swing low and a close above the 10 day MA will have us label day 24 as the daily cycle low.

The bullish RSI pattern is characteristic of the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle. If the dollar delivers bullish follow through on the RSI reversal that will indicate a continuation of the advancing intermediate cycle, which aligns with the dollar being in a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms above the upper daily cycle band then the dollar will remain in its daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.