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Cycle Trading

Miner Patience

Closing above the 10 day MA on Monday looked, in real time, that day 49 was the DCL. Then the Miners lost the 10 day MA on Tuesday, extending the daily cycle decline.

The Miners broke below the day 49 low on Wednesday to print a lower low. Wednesday was day 54, which is very late for a daily cycle low. A swing low has good odds of marking the DCL. Then a break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. The Miners are in a daily uptrend. If the swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band, the Miners will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. A break above 33.59 forms a daily swing low.

3 responses to “Miner Patience”

  1. Fonzi Avatar
    Fonzi

    How many miner cycles have ever lasted this long?

    Reply
    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      A 50 plus day – daily cycle is rare, but does happen.
      Most recently a 55 DCL printed in February.
      Since 1/01/16 there have been 36 daily cycles.
      10 of those daily cycles exceeded 40 days.
      only 2 exceeded 50 days.

      Reply
  2. Alex Avatar
    Alex

    Prior ICL of GSR arround 200dma on Sep4 coincided with the top of Gold.
    Now Gold is close to break prior DCL at 1666 which would confirm the Intermediary Cycle DECLINE.

    Also not a coincidence, in early September COT report of Yen showed Dealer Intermediaries net position at -63k, close to -66k now –> hence a decline of yen is in the loom.
    This also makes sense since EURJPY is emerging out of a multi-year cycle decline and to accomplish that it needs both EURUSD and USDJPY rising.

    So…we have an IC decline in PM at hand 😉 Confirmation will come when Gold gets under 1666.

    Reply

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