Cycle Trading

The Miners delivered a bullish surprise on Tuesday.

We discussed on Monday that the Miners broke below the lower daily cycle band to signal a continuation of its daily cycle decline. Closing below the lower daily cycle band also delivered the expectation for the Miners to break below the day 20 low in order to complete their daily cycle decline. Instead of breaking lower on Tuesday, the Miners delivered a bullish surprise by closing up 2.21% for the day.

The volatility over the past 2 weeks has obscured our daily cycle count. A break below the day 20 low would have had us label Tuesday as day 29. But Tuesday’s bullish surprise keeps the door open for the daily cycle count to be day 9. And if the daily cycle count is day 9, that would indicate that the Miners have left behind their intermediate cycle low.

The Miners printed their lowest point on week 28, to place them deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. While the Miners formed a weekly swing low, they still need to deliver a clear and convincing break above the declining weekly trend line to signal the new intermediate cycle. A close above the 10 week MA will confirm the intermediate cycle low. The Miners are in a weekly uptrend. Since the weekly swing low formed above the lower weekly cycle band — the Miners remain in their weekly uptrend and triggered a weekly cycle band buy signal. A break above the multi year resistance level indicates a resumption of the bull market.

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1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – and it includes the Likesmoney Combination Cycle Tracker & Trend Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesdays is a review of the charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

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The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.