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Cycle Trading

The 11/02/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar closed below the 200 day MA on Friday.

The peak day 7 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation which aligns with the dollar being in a daily downtrend. Closing below the 200 day MA signals a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. A break below the day 26 low of 96.89 will form a failed daily cycle to confirm the continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks

Stocks gapped higher on Monday.

Stocks then coiled though Thursday, backing filling the gap and allowing the 10 day MA to catch up to price. Then stocks broke out to a new high on Friday. The new high on day 21 locks in right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. The swing low that formed on Friday indicates a continuation of the daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.

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4 responses to “The 11/02/19 Weekend Report Preview”

  1. Alex Avatar
    Alex

    why do you consider day 7 in a new DC of dxy if 10dma has yet to turn higher?
    Isnt it also possible that, while TSI is developing a bullish divergence, dxy is still in the same DC (day 35) and after EURUSD hits 200dma by Tuesday, dxy to turn higher in a new DC for a few sessions (and eurusd to close its current DC maybe arround 50dma)?

    Reply
    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      Alex,

      What you propose is possible.
      But to answer your question, it was the recovery of the 200 day MA that convinced that day 26 hosted the DCL.

      Reply
      1. Alex Avatar
        Alex

        Thank you!

  2. Alex Avatar
    Alex

    I kind of think to incline on the above-mentioned scenario. Why?
    EURJPY seems overstretched in its DC and its fall to DCL will be helped by USDJPY resuming its fall right away while EURUSD will oscillate: first up to 200dma then down to its own DCL next week.
    Even if EURUSD will oscillate (hence dxy too to lower low then up to DCH next week), PM should start trending strong upwards as USDJPY will fall, fall and fall, regardless of euro’s and dxy’s oscillations.
    IMO!

    Reply

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