Death of the Dollar ?

February 19, 2019

We observed last week how the 97 level was a significant resistance level for the dollar. After multiple attempts the dollar finally rolled over and delivered bearish follow through.

Monday was day 12 for the daily dollar cycle. The peak on day 11 starts to favor a right translated daily cycle formation. However, the preceding daily cycle ran short at only 14 days. Since cycles often balance out, the dollar could deliver an extended daily cycle. A extended cycle could left translate the day 11 peak. A left translated daily cycle formation would align with our yearly cycle framework as discussed in the Weekend Report.

6 responses to “Death of the Dollar ?”

Daniel

February 20, 2019

How does an extended cycle left translate the day 11 peak ?

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  February 20, 2019
  
  If the daily cycle goes past 22 days that will cause this daily cycle to form as a left translated daily cycle
  
  Reply
Jason

February 21, 2019

To me we are in a clear new IC. The low in late feb was just hcl and we are currently putting in a RT first dcl. Im struggling to understand why you dont see this?

Reply
1. Alex
  
  February 21, 2019
  
  yes, indeed, Jason, especially that a major FOMC (w/ press conference & forecasts) is due in 19 days/sessions –> usd should get higher after kissing 50d these days
  
  Reply
2. likesmoneystudies
  
  February 21, 2019
  
  The low in January arrived at 16 week, which is too early to expect an ICL. But to me the bigger concern is the yearly cycle. January was month 11, placing the dollar in its timing band for a yearly cycle low. So I was looking for a failed weekly cycle to complete the yearly cycle decline — which did not happen. I suspect that manipulation in the currency markets prevented the failed weekly cycle from occurring.
  
  Reply
  1. Alex
    
    February 21, 2019
    
    or we may have at hand the scenario of a new IC of dxy to last many many weeks to even out the latest 16-week IC. Furthermore, with a short 1st DC in this new IC, this DC may get extended too: to render a new high for dxy (YCH) close to Mar20 fomc then roll over to DCL after fomc, a quick upside to new DCH (to chart a HCL for the euro) then down to YCL into July – hence the long IC