Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar broke above both the 10 day MA and the declining trend line on Tuesday to signal a new daily cycle.

The dollar continued to rally into Friday and managed to turn the 10 day MA higher to confirm that day 33 hosted the DCL. The dollar is still in a daily downtrend. If the dollar forms a swing high below the upper daily cycle band it will remain in its daily downtrend.

Stocks

Stocks powered right through the 50 day MA this week.

I was expecting to see stocks consolidate some before breaking above the 50 day MA. But stocks sliced through the 50 day MA on Thursday and then delivered bullish follow through on Friday to close above the upper daily cycle band. That ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend. Since this in a new intermediate cycle, our expectation is to see this daily cycle right translate and should peak after day 20.

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