Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The peak on day 4 sets up a left translated daily cycle formation which would agree with our intermediate cycle framework.

Friday was day 7 for the daily dollar cycle. A close below the double resistance of the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA would convince me that the dollar’s daily cycle has left translated and is headed for a failed daily cycle. It would also allow us to construct the declining cycle trend line. The dollar has begun a daily downtrend. A swing high has formed below the upper daily cycle band to signal a continuation of the daily downtrend.

Stocks

The swing high and close below the 10 day MA signals the beginning of the daily cycle decline.

While there is some uncertainty to the status of the daily cycle, I am in the camp that stocks hosted a mild DCL back in August on day 33. Under this scenario, stocks would be in their 5th daily cycle which agrees with our intermediate cycle framework.

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