Cycle Trading

The Miners breached the 200 week MA last week and this week they are convincingly breaking below the 200 week MA. This is the 5th straight week that Miners are down. To those that do not understand cycles, it looks like a major confirmation that the Miners are in a bear market.

But cycles are telling us a different story.

This was day 26 for the daily Miner cycle and is week 26 for the intermediate Miner cycle. That places the Miners in the timing bands for both a DCL & an ICL. Because it is so late in the weekly cycle, confirmation of a new daily cycle will likely also mark the intermediate cycle low.

The Miners delivered a big drop on Tuesday. What we need to see is a narrow range day that prints a lower low to ease the parameters for forming a swing low. Then a swing low and close above the 10 day MA will confirm the new daily cycle. And once that occurs, I think it will catch everybody on the wrong side of the boat …