Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar formed a bearish reversal just shy of the 200 MA on Friday.

Friday was day 8 for the dollar’s daily cycle. A translated dollar cycle typically peaks by day 8. So Friday’s bearish reversal off of the 200 MA sets up a potential left translated daily cycle formation. But the dollar has established a new daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Wednesday followed by printing swing low on Thursday, allowing us to label Wednesday as the half cycle low.

The formation of the half cycle low allows us to construct the daily cycle trend line. However since stocks closed below the lower daily cycle band this week, that signals that the intermediate cycle is in decline. Therefore any rally out of the HCL should remain lower than the previous daily cycle high of 2801.90

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