Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar closed above the upper daily cycle band on Friday.

Closing above the upper daily cycle band confirms that Friday was day 3 of a new daily cycle. Also, closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend. The previous 3 daily cycle lows occurred at 16 days, 26 days and now 14 days. I believe that the triangle consolidation, which is shown on the weekly chart, is causing some irregular daily cycle counts.

Stocks

Stocks broke above the 50 day MA on Tuesday and the closed higher on Wednesday. However the swing high on Thursday along with closing lower on Friday caused stocks to close below the 50 day MA.

Friday was day 14 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks appear to be back testing the recent volatility zone as they decline into a half cycle low. Although close below the lower daily cycle band would indicate that the intermediate decline has begun. Currently, stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

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