Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 26, placing it in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

The dollar formed a swing low on Wednesday that close above both the 10 day MA & the 50 day MA to signal a new daily cycle. The dollar back tested the 50 day MA on Thursday before delivering more bullish follow through to make Thursday day 2 for the new daily cycle. Still, the dollar is in a daily downtrend. It will remain so unless it closes above it the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

While stocks did form a daily swing low on Monday, stocks have yet to confirm a new daily cycle.

The Russell, Transports, the Semi’s and the Nasdaq all completed swing lows on Thursday. With stocks being in their timing band for a DCL, these swing lows do signal new daily cycles. None have yet to break above their declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. As shown above, stocks are caught between the declining 10 day MA and the rising 200 day MA. A close above the 10 day MA would provide confirmation of a new daily cycle. Since stocks are in their timing band for a DCL, if stocks do break lower any further decline should be brief.

One signal that the daily cycle decline has not completed is the 2 SOS days this week. Minimally, the 2 large SOS days indicate more volatility lies ahead next week. These 2 large SOS days are more consistent with a drop into an intermediate cycle low rather than what we would see emerging from a daily cycle low. This aligns with some of the concerns that I see on the weekly chart, which I cover in the Weekend Report.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report