Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar rallied into Thursday, causing the 10 day MA to turn higher confirming the new daily cycle.

The dollar then ran into resistance at the declining 50 day MA causing the dollar to form a swing high on Friday. The dolar did get a bit stretched above the 10 day MA. If the dollar has begun a new intermediate cycle then the 10 day MA should act as support to launch the dollar above the declining 50 day MA. If the dollar loses the 10 day MA here, that would indicate a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks

Stocks ended their 3 day skid on Friday.

I believe that 2/09/18 marked not only an daily cycle low, but an intermediate and yearly cycle low. If that is the case then Friday potentially marks the half cycle low. But the huge 1,002.99 Selling on Strength number from Friday indicates more volatility ahead.

Still, there were some bullish developments on Friday.

The Nasdaq closed convincingly above its 50 day MA on Friday. A swing low and close above the 10 day MA here will affirm the daily uptrend. And the Semi’s, which have been leading the market, are even more bullish.

The Semi’s remained above their 50 day MA during last week’s decline. On Friday they closed above both their 10 day MA and their upper daily cycle band to affirm their daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend until the close below the lower daily cycle band

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