Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar printed an new high on Tues, day 17, assuring us of a right translated cycle formation.

The dollar formed daily swing high and closed below the 10 day MA on Thursday. The dollar continued lower on Friday to breach the daily cycle trend line and turn the 10 day MA lower which indicates that the dollar is ready to decline into its daily cycle low. Still, the dollar is in a daily uptrend & will continue in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

On Thursday we discussed how the bearish divergences on the daily oscillators was calling into question whether day 45 hosted the DCL.

So we specified the criteria that needed to be met to change the label of a day 45 DCL.

Stocks did not deliver the bearish follow through that was necessary to meet the criteria for changing the day 45 RT label. Which makes Friday day 12 for the daily equity cycle.

And the significant Buying on Weakness number supports the day 12 labeling. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band remaining firmly in a daily uptrend. Stocks will continue in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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