Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The breakout to a new high on day 10 caused the dollar to be extended above the 10 day MA.

The dollar consolidated this week, allowing the 10 day MA to catch up to price. The dollar back tested the 10 day MA on Friday and then rallied into the close. Friday was day 15 for the daily dollar cycle. A break above the day 10 high of 95.06 will shift the odds toward a right translated cycle formation. The dollar continues to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. The dollar will continue in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks continued higher this week, printing a new high on Friday. This convinces me that day 45 hosted the daily cycle low.

We need to acknowledge the change that has happened to stocks. The decline into the intermediate cycle low in August was mild in terms of percentage of decline as well as length of the decline, lasting only 9 days. Since then stocks have corrected for only 3 to 4 days before resuming their daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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