Cycle Trading

The Miners formed a swing low on Monday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 18, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A break of the declining trend line would signal a new daily cycle. However, with this being only week 16 for the intermediate Miner cycle, the Miners need one more daily cycle to bring them in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. That sets up an expectation for the new daily cycle to form in a left translated manner. The Miners are in a daily downtrend and will remain in their downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The dollar may be instrumental as to whether or not the Miners break out of their daily downtrend.

Monday was day 12 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar formed a swing high on Monday but still closed above the upper daily cycle band maintaining its daily uptrend. While it is possible that the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline, I believe that the dollar got a bit too stretched above the 10 day MA. Which would make it likely that the dollar will drift lower into a half cycle low, allowing the Miners to confirm a new daily cycle. Then once the 10 day MA catches up to price, the dollar rallies. Which would send the Miners lower to complete their intermediate cycle decline.