Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar printed it lowest point the previous Fri, placing it in its timing band for a DCL. However the dollar failed this week to break above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.

The status of the dollar’s daily cycle is unclear. Friday was either day 5 or day 31. The dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle, which would make Friday day 5. Unless that happens that means that the daily cycle is still declining into its daily cycle low making Friday day 31.

What is clear is that the dollar continues to close below the lower daily cycle band indicating a daily downtrend. It will remain in its downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

The new high on Friday, day 18, is shifting the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

While stocks did not form a failed daily cycle as it printed the 8/21 low, all other evidence is indicating that the intermediate low has been set. Stocks are closing above the upper daily cycle band confirming the daily uptrend. They will continue in its daily uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band.

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