Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar printed a bullish reversal on Friday.

Friday was day 26 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar in the early part of its timing band to print a daily cycle low. Friday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 91.49 forms a swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle cycle. The dollar continues to close below the lower daily cycle band indicating a daily downtrend. It will remain in its downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks have confirmed the new daily cycle but the status of the intermediate cycle remains unclear.

The rally into the day 9 high caused stocks to get stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks consolidated this week to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. If stocks close below both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA that would be a clear signal that stocks have not completed its intermediate cycle decline. But a break above the previous daily cycle high of 2490.87 shifts the odds towards 8/21 being the ICL. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will continue in its uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band.

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