Cycle Trading

The dollar broke lower on Thursday before reversing to rally into the close.

Thursday was day 37 for the daily dollar cycle which places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The bullish hammer eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 99.84 forms a swing low and will likely signal the new daily cycle. A break above the declining trend line confirms the new daily cycle.

The dollar on the verge of beginning a new daily cycle and that has me skeptical that day 28 hosted a daily cycle low for gold.

Gold printed its lowest point last Friday, day 28. The reversal off the 50 day MA does look like a daily cycle low. But with the dollar printing a bullish reversal it appears that gold has reciprocated by printing a false breakout. A swing high and a close below the 10 day MA would signal that Thursday was day 32 and that gold is now beginning its daily cycle decline.