Cycle Trading

In a perfect world, long positions are entered at the absolute bottom and therefore weather no drawdowns. In the real world, there is no perfect entry. But using cycles can help stack the odds in your favor.

The Miners are clearly in a yearly cycle decline. November is month 10 for the yearly Miner cycle. That places the Miners in their timing band for a yearly cycle low. Which means that it is time to hunt for the yearly cycle low.

Most yearly cycle lows will not form until there is a failed weekly cycle. Last week the Miners broke below the previous intermediate cycle low forming a failed weekly cycle. Then the Miners broke lower this week. At 25 weeks, the Miners are already in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. There is a good chance that once a weekly swing low forms, that will signal the new weekly cycle. Which means that we turn our attention to the daily cycle.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Monday, following the day 16 peak. 24 days places the Miners in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The Miners have formed a swing low but have yet to close above the declining 10 day MA to signal a new daily cycle.

However, there is still a chance that the Miners could break lower. And if that happens then this may help keep things in perspective.

If the yearly cycle low is not already in then it should be with in a few days, which will correct any timing mistakes.