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Cycle Trading

Dollar Strength

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The dollar broke out to a new daily cycle high on Tuesday.

1 $$$ daily

Tuesday was day 17 for the daily dollar cycle. A new high on day 17 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation which reinforces my thinking that May hosted the yearly cycle low. The dollar has also started to close above the upper daily cycle band. This signals a new daily uptrend.

Meanwhile stocks look like they need a breather.

spx

Stocks printed an intermediate cycle low in June. They have since begun to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a new daily uptrend. However, the RSI is overbought and we can see that the True Strength Indicator has reached a level that has seen other daily cycles correct. At day 15, a swing high could see stocks move down into a half cycle low. A break below 2161.74 forms a daily swing high. But as long as they remain aloe the lower daily cycle band they will remain in a daily uptrend.

5 responses to “Dollar Strength”

  1. Ally Mac Avatar
    Ally Mac

    Hi LM,
    Stocks peaked on day 17, so far. If this high holds, is it possible that a left translated cycle is developing ? I mean, would a left translated cycle fit with the longer term cycles that you track ? The reason I ask is my own cycle analysis suggests we may go lower from here for around 14 days +/-.

    Reply
    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      Ally MAC,

      If this high holds, it is possible for a left translated daily formation. But keep in mind that this is the first daily cycle emerging from the June intermediate cycle low. I think more likely that stocks will form a half cycle low before moving on to a new high & forming a right translated daily cycle.

      Reply
      1. allymac101 Avatar
        allymac101

        CB’s have been throwing everything they’ve got at the markets since Brexit so an FOMC inspired HCL followed by new ATH’s makes sense.

        Thanks.

  2. Adrian Thomas Avatar
    Adrian Thomas

    Even though today’s action has negated the swing high, when are you looking for an intermediate top

    Sent from my iPhone

    Reply
    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      The earliest would be during the next daily cycle.

      Reply

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