Cycle Trading

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a swing low on Wednesday day suggesting that 12/09 was the daily cycle low. (Editor’s note, 12/09 was the lowest point following the cycle peak, not 12/15)

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Day 13 is a bit early for a daily cycle low. But the dollar broke above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday confirming a new daily cycle. The dollar failed to deliver any bullish follow through on Friday.

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The previous daily cycle for the dollar failed, sending the dollar into its intermediate cycle decline. The bearish candle on Friday has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 98.64 will form a swing high and signal a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks
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Stocks broke below the previous daily cycle low on Monday, forming a failed daily cycle.

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Stocks rallied strongly off the day 19 bullish reversal regaining both the 50 MA and the 200 MA. But then stocks gave everything back Thursday and Friday, losing both the 50 MA and the 200 MA. With Friday being day 23, we could see stocks go lower for another 7 to 22 days before printing a daily cycle low.

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