Cycle Trading

Oil broke below the previous daily cycle low today forming a failed daily cycle.

Today was day 12 for the daily oil cycle. Oil’s daily cycle normally runs 30 to 50 days from trough to trough. So barring an oversold bounce, oil should trend lower for the next 18 to 38 days before printing its daily cycle low.

And what we see developing on the weekly oil chart looks familiar.

The previous intermediate cycle consolidated for about 9 weeks in a weekly coil before finally breaking lower and declining into its intermediate cycle low.

The current intermediate cycle also consolidated for over 9 weeks. But the failed daily cycle confirms that the intermediate cycle ha begun its decline. Today’s drop looks to have caused a bearish break out of the weekly coil. With oil only on week 11, we could see oil trend lower for the next 14 to 22 weeks before printing its intermediate cycle low.