Cycle Trading

The dollar finally took a breather today after rallying the 6 of the preceding 7 days.

Last week the dollar closed above both the 50 day MA. and the 200 day MA on Thursday and continued higher on Friday, closing above the previous daily cycle high. The dollar closed once again above the upper daily cycle band today which indicates that the dollar is in a daily uptrend. Monday was day 7 for the dollar’s daily cycle and it appears that the dollar back tested the previous daily cycle high. The dollar is at the point where it needs to roll over if this cycle is going to form as a left translated cycle. If the dollar continues higher, then it shifts the likelihood that this will form as a right translated cycle.

If the dollar continues higher, that will be bad news for the CRB.

The CRB printed its intermediate cycle low on 8/24/15. While its first daily cycle was left translated, it did print a higher daily cycle low. The second daily cycle printed a higher daily cycle high. If a higher low forms then the CRB will have established a new uptrend. A rallying dollar would likely halt that.

The current daily cycle sports a peak on day 11 with a lower low printing today, day 22. The CRB is in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. However, if the CRB breaks below the previous daily cycle low of 191.17 it will form a failed daily cycle and signal that it will have begun its intermediate cycle decline .