Cycle Trading

The higher high printed by the dollar today leaves no doubt that this on day 3 of a new daily cycle.

The intermediate dollar cycle failed on week 15. It is unclear if the dollar printed an intermediate cycle low week 15 or not. This new daily cycle has the dollar approaching the declining weekly trend line, leaving little wiggle room. A clear and convincing break above the declining weekly trend line would make this week 4 of a new intermediate cycle. Rejection by the declining weekly trend line would make this week 19 and would have us expecting the dollar to print one more lower weekly cycle low.