Cycle Trading

The Dollar
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Currently the dollar’s daily cycle has a day 8 peak. The dollar is being squeezed between the 10 day MA & the 50 day MA. A break higher will indicate a right translated cycle formation. A break lower locks in a left translated cycle and should lead to another failed daily cycle.

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The dollar did form a swing high on Friday. Not all swing highs are significant. But following a failed daily cycle with the intermediate cycle potentially being on week 16 does leave room for one more failed daily cycle. Failed daily cycles typically peak on or before day 8.

Stocks
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The status of the daily equity cycle remains unclear.

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What is clear is that the daily cycle peaked on day 9, broke below the previous daily cycle low on day 32 – forming a failed daily cycle, and then printed its lowest point of the cycle on day 34. The lack of a clear and convincing break of the declining trend line means that Friday could either be day 43 or day 9. However, the bearish crossover on the True Strength Indicator does suggest another push lower.

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