Cycle Trading

The Dollar

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The dollar printed an intermediate cycle low in May. The first daily cycle following that low peaked on day 8 and then went on to print a 24 day, left translated, daily cycle low which did not fail. The dollar broke above the declining trend line on Tuesday to confirm the new daily cycle.

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Since breaking above the declining trend line on Tuesday, day 3, the dollar has been contained by the 50 day MA. The dollar tagged the developing trend line and Friday and breached the 50 day MA. A clear and convincing close above the 50 day MA should lead to the formation of a right translated daily cycle. Should the dollar be rejected by the 50 day MA here and break below the daily trend line, then the likelihood of a left translated cycle forming increases.

Stocks

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The daily equity cycle printed a 51 day daily cycle low June 9th. It meandered out of that cycle low, not breaking above the previous declining cycle trend line until day 7.

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Stocks printed their highest point so far on Monday. A swing high formed on Wednesday and then stocks broke below the 50 day MA on Thursday. Stocks then back tested the declining cycle trend line on Friday. Stocks have printed an incredible 7.66 Billion in Buying on Weakness since the March daily cycle low. This far exceeds the average of 1.038 billion BOW that we typically see prior to an intermediate cycle low. It also exceeds the 5.057 billion that occurred prior to the 2009 financial crisis low.

But what happens if stocks continue lower?
I give some thoughts on this in the Weekend Report.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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