Cycle Trading

The dollar printed a lower lower Wednesday. At day 18, the dollar has also entered its timing band for a daily cycle low.

The dollar closed below the lower cycle band on Wednesday. Unless the dollar reverses here, it is at risk to continue on to print a failed daily cycle. The dollar is only on week 4 of a new intermediate cycle. A failed daily cycle here would signal another 14 weeks of downside until the dollar entered its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. A break above 95.25 forms a swing low. Then a close above the 50 day MA will confirm a new daily cycle.

Stocks formed a clear and convincing swing low Wednesday that broke the declining trend line. Since day 23 is too early for a daily cycle low, we have to view this as a half cycle low. If stocks break out to a new high we may be forced to rephase this as an early DCL