Cycle Trading

The dollar delivered some bullish follow through to the swing low formed on Friday.

The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 11. The printed its lowest point last Thursday, day 23, which is well within the timing band for a daily cycle low. Monday’s bullish follow through accompanied by the TSI bullish crossover provide more evidence of last Thursday hosting a daily cycle low. A break of the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle.

Gold delivered a bullish day despite today’s dollar rally.

A case can be made the either day 19 or day 27 hosted a daily cycle low. Gold on Friday broke below both below the intra day low for both 19 or day 27. So if either of those days were the daily cycle low, gold would now be in a failed daily cycle.

However today’s bullish print despite the dollar strength today makes it possible that Friday was a stretched daily cycle low. At 32 days gold would be late in its normal timing band for a daily cycle low. A break of the declining trend line would provide more evidence of a 32 day, daily cycle low. If gold breaks above 1214.40, that would confirm that day 32 was the daily cycle low. A break below Friday’s low of 1168.40 would signal that gold is in a failed daily cycle with day 27 likely being its daily cycle low.