Cycle Trading

The Dollar
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The dollar printed a higher daily cycle high on Monday. A swing high formed on Tuesday. The dollar then delivered a clear and convincing break lower on Wednesday, confirming the daily cycle decline.

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Wednesday was Fed Day, and the dollar broke convincingly lower. The dollar continued to print lower highs into Friday, day 17. The dollar enters its timing and to print a daily cycle low next week. A break above the declining trend line will signal a new daily cycle.

Stocks
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The daily equity cycle peaked on day 16 and printed its lowest point on day 26. There it found support just above the intermediate cycle trend line.

Stocks back tested the intermediate trend line a week ago Friday. Stocks closed above the 50 day MA on Monday. Wednesday, Fed Day, saw stocks back test the 50 day MA and continue higher. Stocks closed out the week, printing a higher high, indicating a new daily cycle.

A new daily cycle implies that a right translated daily cycle was left behind. If so, then our expectation is for the new daily cycle to print a higher daily cycle high. Because stocks are in their timing band to seek out an intermediate cycle low our expectation is to see this new daily cycle form as a left translated cycle and fail, leading to an intermediate cycle decline.

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