Cycle Trading

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a swing high on Friday.

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The swing high formed on Friday was accompanied with a bearish TSI crossover. This signals a daily cycle decline.
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We still need to see a break of the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline. A peak on day 15 locks in a right translated nature to this daily cycle. Therefore our expectation is to see one more daily cycle that prints a higher high. For reasons explained in the Weekend Report, we expect the next daily cycle to form as a left translated cycle rolling over by day 8.

Stocks
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The daily equity cycle peaked on day 8. Then delivered a sharp decline that ended on Tuesday, where stocks printed an early half cycle low.

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Friday’s bearish reversal could have possibly set the declining cycle trend line. There is the potential that this weekly cycle is only going to be comprised of 2 daily cycles. If so, then that would require that this second daily cycle fail. Failed daily cycles usually peak by day 20. And we will see in the Weekend Report that there are signs on the weekly chart that this intermediate cycle is rolling over.

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