Cycle Trading

http://postimg.org/image/eevbyr8wz/

The SPY delivered another eye popping SOS number today.

http://postimg.org/image/m8vxk5gpv/

The 770 million SOS today brings the cumulative Selling on Strength to 4.33 billion for this daily cycle. This surpasses the amount of selling on strength seen during a normal intermediate top.

Below is an example from the Likesmoney Archives of the Selling on Strength leading into the June 2013 intermediate low.

http://postimg.org/image/5rwx3mea5/

The Selling on Strength numbers leading into the June 2013 intermediate low totaled 2.858 billion. The 4.33 billion printed so far is already 51% more. Since the current daily cycle has locked in a right translated nature, I believe that we will see a decline into a daily cycle low. But that the next daily cycle after breaking out to a new high will then roll over into a left translated failed daily cycle, which would lead to the intermediate cycle decline.

The dollar printed another higher high today.

http://postimg.org/image/nomthp7tp/

Monday was day 5 for the current daily cycle. With the intermediate cycle now on week 29, we expect this daily cycle to roll over into a left translated, failed daily cycle. A peak on day 5 would align with that expectation. A break below 88.14 forms a swing high. We would then need to see a break below 87.23 to confirm a failed daily cycle, which would signal the intermediate cycle decline.