Cycle Trading

The Dollar
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The dollar broke out to a new high on Friday, day 12. This shifts the likelihood of the current daily cycle forming in a right translated manner.

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The previous daily cycle was a right translated cycle, so the new high on Friday fulfills our cyclical expectations of a higher high following a right translated cycle. The dollar needs to form a swing high accompanied by a trend line break to confirm a daily cycle decline.

Stocks
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Stocks broke above the 50 day MA this week in a clear and convincing fashion.

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Stocks are emerging out of an intermediate cycle low. Typically the first daily cycle out of an intermediate low forms in a right translated manner, which should see stocks peak on or after day 20. While stocks came close to printing a new high we can see that other indices have done so already.

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Both the Nasdaq and the Dow have broke out to new highs as well as the Nikkei, which had a huge day after Japan’s announcement of their own QE program.

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