Cycle Trading

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The dollar broke above the declining trend line signaling a new daily cycle.

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Since the daily cycle count has not been clear, we still need to see a break above 86.13 to form a daily swing low and confirm a new daily cycle.

Last week was week 22 for the intermediate dollar cycle. Since the dollar has yet to print a failed daily cycle during this intermediate cycle, our expectation is to see this new daily cycle fail.

Gold also printed a trend line break today.

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Wednesday was day 12 for the daily gold cycle. Gold’s daily cycle peaked on Tuesday, breaking just above the declining 50 day MA. Gold lost the 50 day MA today as it formed a swing high. Gold also delivered a trend line break which signals a daily cycle decline. While gold does sport a day 11 cycle peak, that does not insure that this daily cycle will not fail.